| Last update - 13:19
10/08/2006 |
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| ANALYSIS: Olmert is
unsure on how to bring conflict to an end |
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| By Aluf
Benn, Haaretz Correspondent |
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The defense establishment's
proposal to expand the Israel Defense Forces operation in
Lebanon was approved by a large majority of cabinet ministers
on Wednesday: Nine ministers backed the proposal, while three
abstained. But according to some attendees, the results of the
vote do not reflect the ministers' true opinions. "If
everyone voted the way they spoke, there would be a majority
opposing the proposal," one minister said. So why didn't
anyone vote against the proposal? We were afraid, the minister
explained, of showing the public and the Hezbollah that there
are rifts within the government and cracks in its support for
the IDF.
The problem is that such cracks exist and no one is really
making an effort to hide them anymore. Rifts between Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz. Rifts
between Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and IDF Chief of Staff
Dan Halutz. And those between the head of the Mossad, Meir
Dagan and Head of the Imtelligence Corps, Amos Yadlin. And
between Peretz and his predecessor, Shaul Mofaz and between
Mofaz and Avi Dichter. One of those present summed the
situation up by saying, "everyone was involved in at
least one quarrel."
The prime minister does not like the master plan prepared for
him this week by Peretz and Halutz. He feared that sending in
several divisions to operate for a month, possibly two, in the
hostile territory of southern Lebanon would entail multiple
casualties, an ongoing occupation and would gnaw at the
already dwindling remnants of Israel's international support.
It is doubtful whether the Katyusha fire on northern Israeli
towns would cease, even after such an operation. There will
always be some Hezbollah man on donkey-back, poised and ready
to launch a rocket into the Galilee, just like the Palestinian
Qassam launchers are doing in Gaza.
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But Olmert's
reservations clash with his original position, that the
political echelon should not interfere with operational
decisions, and that it should follow the army's
recommendations. What should he do? Olmert found two ways to
solve this dilemma - he allowed Mofaz to present before the
ministers his plan for a swift, limited operation, a plan that
would enable Israel to announce victory quickly and with a
minimal casualties. Mofaz met with Olmert on Tuesday and
presented his plan. According to one version of the story, he
also told the chief of staff about it before the meeting.
The ministers reacted enthusiastically to the plan, and Peretz
realized he had been ambushed. It was an obvious trick: The
minister who has the most military experience in the
government, Lieutenant General (res.) Shaul Mofaz, proposes an
elegant and mischievous scheme, to counter the weighty, clumsy
and danger-riddled plan proposed by his heir. If there are any
complications, the public will know there was a simpler,
cheaper solution.
Then Peretz burst reminding that Mofaz had been the one who
neglected to deal with Hezbollah's massive arming during his
tenure in the past few years. When the meeting was over, the
accusations continued - on the one hand, voiced claimed that
even if you have a new operational plan, you shouldn't wave it
at a cabinet meeting just to demonstrate your superiority.
Others counterclaimed that Mofaz had been opposed to Israel's
unilateral pullout from Lebanon in the spring of 2000, and had
also warned Israel of the dangers of the rocket arsenal there.
Olmert made efforts to restore calm in the meeting and
explained that since he must maintain authority and
responsibility, he can only bring the defense establishment's
proposal up to a vote.
In the end, his salvation came from Condoleezza Rice. The U.S.
Secretary of State called to inform the cabinet of expected
progress in talks over a UN resolution which have so far been
unfruitful. Livni had earlier conditioned her support for the
proposal on a "timeout" to pursue a diplomatic
resolution first before going ahead with the operation. As a
result of Rice's news, Olmert and Livni managed to convince
Peretz that the operation should be postponed for at least 48
hours.
And so the cabinet meeting ended in a rather predictable
compromise: Approval of an outline of the operation in
principle, while postponing its implementation to allow for
development in the UN talks. Troops, however, will take up
positions in preparation for the operation. Israel is telling
the UN "hold me back," in efforts to prevent itself
from getting swept up in any one decision and hoping for the
best. Olmert's moment of truth has been postponed, at least
until Friday.
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