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It's
a widely accepted idea that an Israeli who returns
home, even after a short period of time, feels as if
he has come to another country. But the opposite is
the case: He returns to the same situation, the same
problems, the same thought patterns and mainly, the
same solutions. Apparently, we did not learn a thing
from the first Lebanon War or from the American
defeat in Iraq. If the definition of Israel's
strategic goal given by the head of Military
Intelligence at the beginning of the week reflects
the government's position, we are in big trouble.
If Israel really did embark on the war in order to
force Lebanon to impose its authority on the south,
which is in Hezbollah's hands - or in other words,
to force the Lebanese government to begin a civil
war in the service of Israel - that is a sign that
it is dominated by thinking even more primitive than
the thinking that led Ariel Sharon to Beirut about a
quarter of a century ago.
But this time, we have exacerbated the problem: At
the beginning of the third week of fighting, in
spite of the determination and courage of the
attacking soldiers, the war seems only to be
beginning. That is why we should achieve a
cease-fire before the campaign gets out of control,
claims victims in vain and, in the long run, even
turns into a strategic failure. In the more distant
future, it will be necessary to carry out a
fundamental structural reform of the government's
work procedures and to examine its dependence on the
Israel Defense Forces' General Staff. These are
truths that are not pleasant to voice at this time,
but that is the reality, and we are obliged to
confront it.
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And
in fact, considering the means that the IDF is
employing and the ratio of forces in the field, any
outcome less than the elimination of Hezbollah as a
fighting force will be considered an Israeli failure
and a great achievement for the enemy. But since it
is impossible to uproot Hezbollah from among the
Shiites without destroying the population itself,
wisdom requires us to refrain from positing goals
that are unachievable.
The inability of a major power to put an end to a
guerrilla war is not a new phenomenon: From Napoleon
in Spain, through his successors in Algeria, to the
Americans in Vietnam and now in Iraq, well-organized
armies equipped with modern technology have always
failed in attempts to defeat irregular forces. The
latter know how to adapt themselves to their
surroundings, they are an inseparable part of the
population and they serve its material, religious
and emotional needs.
When there is fighting, guerrilla organizations want
the entire population to be harmed. When everyone is
a victim, the hatred will be directed at the enemy
more forcefully. That is why bombing residential
neighborhoods, power plants, bridges and highways is
an act of folly, which plays into Hezbollah's hands
and serves its strategic goals: An attack on the
overall fabric of life creates a common fate for the
fighters and those standing on the sidelines. At the
same time, the greater the population's suffering,
the greater its alienation from the formal ruling
institutions - the government, the parliament and
the various security forces that are powerless to
save them.
It is an illusion to hope that the 700,000 Lebanese
refugees will direct their fury at their government,
or that the population that still remains in place
will evict the Hezbollah members from among it. As
far as the population is concerned, responsibility
for its catastrophe lies entirely with Israel, and
failure to cooperate with whoever fights against
Israel would be considered national treason. It was
foolish to assume that the Lebanese political elite
would dare to confront Hezbollah and use force
against it. And anyway, who was even capable of
using force? The Lebanese Army, whose bases were
bombed as well?
That is why Israel's interest must be to isolate
Hezbollah, to strike a hard blow at its bases and
camps, but to avoid harming the infrastructure of
life for the general population, even when its gives
refuge to those bearing arms. This is not a matter
of military ethics, but of a cold practical
considerations.
The goal of the war is to restrain Hezbollah,
because nobody is dreaming any longer of destroying
it. As things look today, at best, Israel will make
do with removing it from the border. There, behind
the back of an international force, which in the
Arab world will in any case be seen as protecting
Israel, Hezbollah will be able to reorganize, train,
equip itself with more modern weapons and prepare
for the next round.
There is no military solution for this situation.
IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz has already implied
that the solution is political. The prime minister,
who bears overall responsibility and will be
required to give an accounting in the future, would
do well not to lag behind the person who in any case
will pass him the hot potato.
And a word about the price of American support.
Sometimes it seems as if U.S. President George W.
Bush wants Israel both to destroy Lebanon and to
sustain painful losses. That way, Israel provides
him with an excellent alibi for the war in Iraq: The
fight against terror is global, the blood price is
the same, the methods of operation and the means are
identical, and the time needed for victory is long.
The Israeli vassal is serving its master no less
than the master is providing for its needs.
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