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The
second war in Lebanon has no name yet. The army and
the government are waiting to see how things work
out. If the results are good, Dan Halutz and Ehud
Olmert will choose a heroic name to immortalize
their action. But if it ends badly - which appears
more likely - they will try to belittle it and turn
it into a small, unimportant, nameless operation.
Expectations were high. For the first time in
decades, two civilians were at the top of the
defense pyramid. Many celebrated the victory of the
social-civil agenda over the military-security one.
Many believed that when the chief of staff urged for
a military solution, Olmert and Peretz would stand
against him like a brick wall. After all, they don't
see the world through the sights of a gun;
therefore, they will choose a restrained,
proportionate reaction, which will take into account
all the risks and the repercussions for Israel.
But the opposite happened. The civilians felt
inferior to the generals, and within minutes made a
fatal decision and set unattainable, pretentious
goals: driving Hezbollah out of south Lebanon and
deploying the Lebanese army in its place. People
close to Olmert said he was about to do something
even the great Ariel Sharon was afraid of doing.
Because he is braver, stronger, wiser than the sick
leader, who cannot answer him.
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But
Olmert and Peretz should know that a large,
cumbersome army built for conventional wars cannot
defeat a small agile guerrilla group that controls
the territory. Also, there is little in common
between a neat military plan outlined in an
air-conditioned briefing room and the reality of
getting entangled in the old familiar Lebanese
quagmire.
It appears, however, that Olmert and Peretz cannot
tell the difference between being right and being
effective. It was justified to react harshly to the
killing of three soldiers and the capture of two.
But since it is impossible to accomplish the lofty,
arrogant goals the prime minister had announced,
Israel should have made do with a short, limited
response, thus avoiding the grave damages, which are
increasing.
The first and dearest price of all is the military
and civilian fatalities and casualties. OC Northern
Command Udi Adam has a way of ignoring this.
"We must change our way of thinking and not
count the dead now." With this method we could
have continued the first war in Lebanon until today.
Israel is also paying dearly in world public opinion
and among most world leaders. The news media, even
in the United States, show the vast devastation
caused by the bombings, the destroyed houses and
buildings, bridges and infrastructures, the hundreds
of thousands of refugees and the numerous civilians
who were killed.
Olmert and Peretz boast that they had no qualms
about exposing the Israeli home front to rocket
volleys, which they described as "a strategic
change." But did they take into account the
economic disaster which the home front is now
undergoing? The million people in Israel's north?
Did they take into account the bankruptcies, the
losses, the unpaid wages and the expected economic
slowdown due to halting economic activity in the
north, and the growing fears in the center?
Has anyone calculated how many billions would be
lost, how many billions the army would demand to
requip itself? Did they take into account that
because of that Israel would not be able to carry
out the plans to bridge gaps, to fight poverty and
to assist the weak and elderly?
Most ludicrous of all is to hear Olmert boast of
American and British support. If it were up to
George Bush and Tony Blair, they would already send
the Israel Defense Forces today into Syria as well,
to do their work - to the last drop of Israeli
soldiers' blood.
The present trap was easily predicted. The war's
goals - which the army promised to achieve within
two weeks by aerial bombardment alone - are not
being accomplished. The rocket launching is not
abating, Hezbollah is not breaking down and there is
no military victory. The haughty statement of the
Air Force's commander, Eliezer Shkedi, that
Hezbollah is nothing but a gang, is not helping.
Olmert, who perhaps realizes now the depth of the
quagmire into which we have sunk, has already waived
one of his impossible conditions, that the tiny
Lebanese army deploy on the border instead of
Hezbollah, and has expressed support for posting a
multinational force. But he'll find out soon enough
that the Europeans are not exactly thrilled to send
a "foreign legion" to prevent Hezbollah
from reaching the border. Nobody is eager to die on
Lebanese soil, especially not for Israel.
The whole world watches the mighty Israeli army, the
world's fifth largest, with its state-of-the-art
warplanes, pinpoint weapons and colossal budgets -
and sees it is incapable of defeating a small terror
group of a few thousand fighters. What does that say
about Israel's power of deterrence in the West Bank,
the Gaza Strip, and in all the Arab states?
Time is not on our side, and Israel's interest is
therefore clear. Declare victory, accept the
mediation proposals, and end the war immediately.
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